Switch 2 Analysis – Part 2: Name and release timeframe
When will Nintendo release new Hardware? What would be the right timeframe for a new console?
Let’s Analyse.
As discussed in my previous blog posts, we assume that the next hardware will be a Switch type console and feature backwards compatibility.
Release timeframe
Possibilities:
Release this year
I believe we can safely assume Nintendo won’t release the next console this year. It is possible, however a bit unlikely. First of all, they stated that there won’t be new hardware this financial year, which ends in March 2024. Furthermore, if Nintendo releases the console this year, then we already know which games it will be released with:
Mario Wonder and Super Mario RPG. Both games look great, though, to me, these are not console sellers. Wonder looks amazing and 2D Mario games are very successful, however, the game does not provide a reason to upgrade.
Besides, it would’ve made much more sense to wait a few more months and release Tears of the Kingdom alongside the new console. The additional few months could’ve been used to optimize for the new console and make it run more smooth or have higher resolution.
Release in 2024
This sounds more plausible. As I analyzed in my previous blog post, there are some DLC passes releasing and ending this year. The Mario Kart Booster Course Waves will end this year, if Nintendo sticks to their plans. Splatoon 3 DLC Pass also ends this year, same as for Pokémon Scarlet and Violet DLC Pass. It seems like a fresh cut at the end of this year with no planned DLCs releasing into 2024. Obviously, it is possible that new DLCs and Passes are announced in a September Direct, which could release in 2024. For instance, Zelda Tears of the Kingdom DLC is highly expected and shouldn’t be announced too late. Everyone is playing the game now and would like to have more content later this year or at least early next year. However, they could announce the passes in September and release them alongside the next console, if the Switch is backwards compatible. Nintendo could, similarly to the original Switch, show the console in January or February and release it a few months later. They will most certainly not announce it before Christmas and kill all potential Original Switch sells. If the console releases in early 2024, it must have a solid game release plan for the following months.
So which games are possible. Only a few come to mind.
Metroid Prime 4
3D Mario Game, maybe Super Mario Odyssey 2
Mario Kart 10 (Mario Kart Tour is considered 9, apparently)
For the same reasons above, the new console could also be released in the summer or fall of 2024. Nintendo could have more time to work on huge system seller games. However, there are two arguments against a later release:
First, Nintendo wouldn’t have to produce too many consoles. The release will obviously require a large batch of consoles, but not as many as is needed for the holidays. Nintendo could have more time to produce enough consoles until Christmas, so that everyone can get one. Moreover, Nintendo can use the time to fix bugs and hardware issues and have a very stable console for Christmas.
Second, a late release requires Nintendo to also sell new games for the old Switch, until the release of the new console. They can’t just stop selling games for the old console.
On the other hand, it is very well known that Nintendo is sitting on finished games, just waiting for the perfect timing. It is more or less a fact that Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD are ready and these games could be released to fill the gap.
2025 or later
For the reasons described above it makes more sense to have the new console be released in 2024. Nintendo would have to release too many games to fill the gap of a whole year and it should at least have 2-3 major games. Games that could be released exclusively for the new console to sell the system.
Therefore, I believe (and I most definitely hope) the new console is releasing in the first half of 2024.
Name
Marketing is super important in the console business and naming is especially important in order to sell many consoles. There are many reasons the WiiU failed and many analysts are sure the name is one of them. People just weren’t sure what the WiiU is. Is it a new console or just an Add-On? What does WiiU even mean? Let’s look at other console names.
Nintendo
Nintendo Entertainment System (NES)
Super Nintendo Entertainment System (SNES)
Nintendo 64
Gamecube
Wii
WiiU
Switch
Sony
PlayStation 1
PlayStation 2
PlayStation 3
PlayStation 4
PlayStation 5
Microsoft
Xbox
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Xbox Series X and Series S
Looking at the names, Sony has definitely the best naming convention of all. While it’s boring, it’s also super effective. Parents know their kids have a PlayStation 4, so they have to buy a PlayStation 5. That’s it. Just remember the number.
Compared to Xbox, where the naming is all over the place. Actually, I have no idea what is happening here. The 360 was released when the PS3 came out, so I was thinking they chose 360 to also have a 3 in the name. Xbox 2 vs. PS3 sounds bad for Microsoft. This is the only plausible reason I can come up with. Xbox One is a real mystery. This was supposed to combine TV and console into One, and that’s why it’s named One? And don’t get me started with their Pro consoles, Xbox One X. This can’t get more stupid, but Microsoft doesn’t disappoint and actually made it worse with the next gen consoles: The Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S. These names are terrible. All of them.
Nintendo doesn’t really have a naming convention, either. They never number their consoles like Sony does. They rather name their consoles depending on the consoles physical appearance or feature like GameCube or Switch. Another possibility is the consoles performance feature like being 64 bit (N64) or Super NES, which hints at a more performant NES, basically. Or they use something completely random, but short and easy to remember with the Wii. No idea why this worked, and I don’t think it is a good name. Maybe, because it was meant for a broader demographic and the name hinted at Co-Op play (Us, Together -> We -> Wii, to make it trademarkable). They probably know by now that the name WiiU was a bad choice and Wii2 or Super Wii would’ve been much better. Maybe, these names could’ve saved the Wii successor from failing so badly. I hope Nintendo knows that a good name is very important, especially if you are trying to sell a very similar concept and a direct successor. I think Super is good.
With all this being said, I am convinced the Switch successor will release on Friday, April 5th 2024, and be called Nintendo Super Switch. You heard it here first. Mark my words!
So which launch Games?
We will analyze in a future blog post, which games could come to Super Switch at launch and shortly after. Will it have an awesome first year, just like the original Switch had? 2017 is difficult to beat (Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, ARMS, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, etc.)
