Switch 2 Analysis – Part 3: Launch Games

Nintendo has many very successful franchises and is known for its high quality games. The Switch has one of the, maybe even the best games ever released on a console. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, just to name a few. All of these games even launched in the first year of the original Switch in 2017. Shortly after, more amazing games were released, such as Super Smash Bros.: Ultimate, Animal Crossing and many Mario Sport and Party games.

So what will the launch year of the next Switch look like? Which games will release in the launch window of year one.

Metroid Prime 4

Announced in 2017 and delayed unfortunately, it now seems that this game will be Cross-Gen and might even be the launch game of the new console.

In my opinion, it shouldn’t be a launch game, at least not the only one. Metroid is not a huge franchise to sell consoles. I like the games and they are high quality, but I don’t think many people will buy the new Switch just for that game. However, Nintendo might be fine with that, since they might not have too many produced consoles at the beginning any way.

The Legend of Zelda also wasn’t a huge franchise. I mean it is a huge franchise, but not sells wise. That has changed since Breath of the Wild, though. It was risky for Nintendo to release the Switch with a Zelda game, but they probably also knew that the game was a “game changer” and on another level, so more people will actually buy the console just for that game. However, I don’t see Metroid doing the same thing, unless Nintendo knows again that the game is a masterpiece reaching more players than the usual Metroid fanbase.

I would rather see this game as a holiday title in the first year.

3D Mario

Nintendo usually releases a new console with a Mario game. It is a perfect fit. Mario = Nintendo, so why not sell a new console with a new Mario game. That has worked in the past and can and will work again. This time, it could actually happen. The Original Switch did not come with a Mario game, it was a Zelda game, however, Mario Kart was released just shortly after and right before the holidays Super Mario Odyssey launched.

Since then, we haven’t really had a new 3D Mario game. Though, there was Bowsers Fury, but it was an Add-On for a Remake. So where is Super Mario Odyssey 2, or something completely new? The launch of the console would be a perfect timing to release a new 3D Mario game.

2D Mario

Super Mario Bros. Wonder is releasing this year, so we will definitely not getting a new 2D Mario for the launch of the Switch. Hopefully, we can play Wonder in better graphics and performance on the new console, but I believe, no new 2D Mario for a while then. Maybe two or three years later, also depending on the success of Wonder.

Zelda

Well, we just had The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, a masterpiece of a game and it will most likely take another 5-6 years, until we can play a new Zelda game, and that’s ok, actually. I can see DLC being released for TotK and playable on the new Switch, but no new 3D Zelda game for launch.

2D Zelda is a different topic, however. Nintendo hasn’t released a complete new 2D Zelda game since Link between Worlds for 3DS. Links Awakening was an awesome Remake and I could see Nintendo releasing more remakes of older 2D Zelda games. Maybe the Oracle games, that were just released on NSO? A complete new 2D Zelda game or a remake happening shortly after launch of the console is plausible, so launch year game maybe.

You know what would be amazing? The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past in 3D in Tears of the Kingdom engine… One can dream.

Animal Crossing

Animal Crossing sold over 42 million copies on the current Switch. This is bonkers. Obviously, there was a good reason why. The pandemic helped a lot. It was the perfect game to be released during that time. A feel good game for everyone. I am not sure, if Nintendo can pull that again. The fanbase should be much larger now. My wife never heard of Animal Crossing before and she got obsessed with the game in 2020. She and many others will most definitely get the new game, probably also a new console to play the game. I could see this a launch year game.

Mario Kart 10

This might be the game launching with the console. In my opinion, there is no other game to sell as many consoles as possible. Not even a 3D Mario. In fact, 2D Mario games usually sell better than 3D Mario games. However, Mario Kart always sells really well. Probably the main reason for the Switchs current success.

The only reason this might not be a launch game, is because of the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Pass. It will end in 2023 and a new Mario Kart game shortly after might be too much Mario Kart in such a short time. However, not everyone will buy the next Switch at launch, so many will play this next iteration of Mario Kart much later.

Pokémon

Pokémon Games are literal system sellers and Nintendo knows that. Most Pokémon releases are combined with a Pokémon themed Switch (Lite) in order to sell even more consoles.

In my opinion, one of the reasons the WiiU failed, was because it did not feature a single good Pokémon game. They were all 3DS only at that time.

In case GameFreak isn’t ready yet for a new generation of Pokémon game, which it actually might be, since Scarlet & Violet are fairly new, Nintendo could release a Pokémon: Let’s Go game of Gen 2 and sell millions of consoles right at the start, just for that game. Otherwise, it is possible to have another remake of an older Pokémon generation ready for the months after launch. Maybe Black and White?

Actually, GameFreak might have a new generation Pokémon game ready for the holidays of 2024. Scarlet & Violet will be 2 years old by then. It would be very good to have a new generation Pokémon game ready for holidays, since it will sell consoles like crazy.

So Pokémon: launch year.

Splatoon

Splatoon 3 was released in August 2022 and Nintendo promised regular updates for 2 years. A new Splatoon game seems unlikely for the release. However, a new game in year 2 or 3 of the console seams very likely. Since Splatoon 3 will most likely run on the new console, players won’t need a new game, they are already playing a fairly new Splatoon game.

Kirby

There is always a Kirby game. Fans of Kirby must be the happiest fans on earth. Every year, there are multiple Kirby games, all of them great games including some gems like Kirby and the Forgotten Land. I can totally see a Kirby game in the launch year. Not so much as a console launch game.

Yoshi

We haven’t had a Yoshi game in a long time. Yoshi’s Crafted World was released in March 2019, which is almost 5 years ago. Perfect time to release a new Yoshi game, but I think it is rather a year-2 game, not a launch game.

Donkey Kong

Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze is even older. It was originally released on WiiU in 2014, but then an enhanced port for the Nintendo Switch in May 2018. The games are fun, though, also super hard. The difficulty is on another level. I am not sure if Nintendo will release a new Country game. There were many rumors about a 3D Donkey Kong game and I think that sounds really good. However, I don’t see anything related to Donkey Kong in the first few months of release of the console. It is rather a year-2 game to me.

Super Smash Bros

Highly unlikely to get a new Smash game in the first couple of years, however, Nintendo could release Smash Ultimate as a Deluxe version with all DLC characters included for the next console and be done with it. Same game, but maybe polished graphics and as mentioned all characters already included in the retail version. It would be great if the original version runs on that Switch with a performance patch for the new console.

Mario Party and Mario Sports

There is always a Mario Party or Sports game. Launch year game definitely.

Backwards Compatibility and Cross-Gen

The main question will be, if all these games will be Cross-Gen or not. Will these games be playable on the old Switch as well?

For Metroid Prime 4, I think, it would be smart to sell it as Cross-Gen, so that more people can buy the game at release. It was announced for the current Switch after all. Some other games though, could and probably should be console exclusive to force gamers into buying the new console, like Mario Kart 10. On the other hand, sales of that game would skyrocket and could potentially even outsell the ridiculously high sales of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

This is a tough question and luckily I don’t have to make that decision. If I would have to, here is what I would do:

Games that really need the new performance should be exclusive to the new console. Moreover, games that are system sellers should also be exclusive, so people are actually purchasing new hardware. Games like Mario Kart 10, Super Mario Odyssey 2, Pokemon or Animal Crossing should definitely be exclusive.

Games like Mario Party and Mario Sports games or even Kirby could be released for the Original Switch as well to reach a broader audience and these games are not power hungry.

My prediction

The Super Switch will release with a new 3D Mario game, followed by Mario Kart X just a few months later. Metroid Prime 4 will be released in October and a new generation Pokémon game will be released in November of that year. In between will be many “smaller” games or ports or remakes, such as Smash Ultimate Deluxe or a new Mario Party or a new Kirby game.